Or the time when you were absolutely sure you had packed everything you needed for the trip, just to find out later you'd forgot your towel?
Humans are overconfident: when someone tells you they are 90% sure, chances are they will get it right only 60% of the time.
But you can train against this. Weight your beliefs, think about your feelings, and log with Predict what you think is going to happen tonight. When you know the answer, swipe right or left. Then check your score!